by Jason Crawford

The ideal human population is not ‘much smaller,’ but ‘ever larger.’ … A world with a large and growing population is a dynamic world that can create and sustain progress.

The City That Can't?

by Ryan Puzycki

The City That Can’t. That’s a helluva far cry from the city’s official motto, ‘Gold in Peace, Iron in War.’

How to raise a (happy) genius

by Henry Oliver

Exceptional educations do not mean we have to choose between brilliance and happiness. The key is autonomy.

We Need Major, But Not Radical, FDA Reform

by Maxwell Tabarrok

The FDA’s failures merit a complete overhaul: Remove efficacy requirements and keep only basic safety testing and ingredient verification.

How Rich Would 1 Billion Americans Be?

by Sam Harsimony

Nobody really took idea of one billion Americans *literally*. In all the podcasts and book reviews, nobody thought to ask, ‘what would the American economy look like with 1 billion people?

What if government worked like Wikipedia?

by Elle Griffin

What if our constitution was a Wikipedia page that any of us could edit, and trusted editors could then incorporate those edits as it made sense?

Why I Don't Identify with the Progress Studies Community

by Daniel Frank

In terms of increasing human flourishing for those alive today, increasing progress is just one, among many tools, and certainly not the one with the most low-hanging fruit.

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by Maxwell Tabarrok

Surgery has at least all of the market challenges that harry pharmaceuticals and it doesn’t have an FDA. Yet, it still muddles through.

Making every researcher seek grants is a broken model

by Jason Crawford

Funding should go in a single block to a relatively large research organization… This is how some of the most effective, transformative labs in the world have been organized.

The increasing importance of coordination

by Mark Lutter

The world is changing. Current institutions, including governments, universities, media, are ill suited to the changes… It’s up to us to build a better future for ourselves and our ancestors.

Safe Stasis Fallacy

by David Manheim

A critical failure mode in many discussions of technological risk is the assumption that maintaining status quo for technology would lead to maintaining the status quo for society.

The Seven Laws of Declinism

by Maarten Boudry

If life is better than ever before, why does the world seem so depressing?

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by Matt Clancy

My preferred policy stance… is to separately and in parallel pursue reforms that accelerate science and reforms that reduce risks from new technologies, without worrying too much about their interaction

What is industrial policy for, anyway?

by Connor O'Brien

One administration after the other was happy to protect U.S. Steel when it was most vulnerable and direct public procurement officers its way even when it cost taxpayers dearly. But this assistance did not come with the condition that the firm learn, upgrade, or innovate. It did little more than subsidize the culture of complacency that ended up being U.S. Steel’s undoing.

Introducing Pathways to Progress

by lmessner

We are excited to announce Pathways to Progress, a 10-week reading group and speaker series exploring Progress Studies! We will be running our second fellowship starting at the beginning of February via Zoom.

Notes on Differential Technological Development

by Chris Leong

Great post by Michael Nielsen that lists a bunch of considerations in relation to Differential Technological Development.

Against the Burden of Knowledge

by Maxwell Tabarrok

The burden of knowledge claims that these trends are inevitable responses to an unavoidable cost of progress. But an explanation based on on institutional decay suggests a solution: metascience.

Today Is the Best Time To Be Born, Despite Climate Change

by Maarten Boudry

Now that we have finally escaped from thousands of years of drudgery and suffering and entered an age of abundance, it would be bizarrely self-indulgent to imagine that *today*, of all times, is the wrong moment to be born.

California Whatever? Scoffing Is Easy, Building Is Harder.

by Ryan Puzycki

Our instinctual rush to criticize is itself symptomatic of our cultural malaise, that feeling of futility or lack of control in the face of seemingly insurmountable problems. California Forever—with its outrageously bold ambitions, its self-assured rejection of fatalism—strikes at the heart of that malaise.

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by Henry Oliver

The social criticism of Charles Dickens was worth as much as all the nineteenth century’s poverty data. Statistics alone cannot make you feel the truth of what it is like to be in jail, school, or an orphanage.

See also The role of literature in progress, also by Henry.

Health Insurance in Children's Lit!? A study of Black Beauty

by Tina Marsh Dalton

There’s more to this stage of Black Beauty’s life than just a vivid imagining of London from a horse’s perspective—there’s also health economics!

The Engine of Progress: Why Growth Matters

by Philip Skogsberg

Economic growth has enabled more or less everything we value about modern society, directly or indirectly.

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by Alexandra Balwit

The micropipette only exists thanks to a long line of scientists and businessmen whose creative iterations, savvy deals, and expensive legal battles shaped the course of modern science.

Cellular reprogramming, pneumatic launch systems, and terraforming Mars

by Jason Crawford

In December, I went to the Foresight Institute’s Vision Weekend 2023 in San Francisco. I had a lot of fun talking to a bunch of weird and ambitious geeks about the glorious abundant technological future. Here are few things I learned about

Why Patents? The History and Evidence

by Evan Zimmerman

Jefferson himself, who called feared the monopoly of patents, eventually came around, so much so that he helped author the Patent Act of 1790 alongside John Ruggles. Jefferson even came to call patents a “gift of social law” that “caused a spring of invention.”

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by Maarten Boudry

To dream of a planet with fewer people is to dream of stagnation, regression, and decline.

Bottlenecks of Aging - new report by the Amaranth Foundation

by Alex Telford

In 2022, the Amaranth Advisory Board—a group of leading experts in longevity and neuroscience—convened to address the bottlenecks hindering progress in extending healthy human lifespan.

The origins of the steam engine: An essay with interactive animated diagrams

by Anton Howes and animated by Matt Brown of Extraordinary Facility

Steam power did not begin with the steam engine… Here we’ll explore the long, little-known story of how the steam engine evolved. And have fun playing with the ancient devices

Infrastructure is the Concealed Wiring of Civilization

by Jeremy

That’s the nature of infrastructure: when operational, it’s an invisible supporting actor in our lives. It’s unassuming, quietly working in the background.

Rejecting Our Faustian Bargain

by Madeline Zimmerman

The U.S. military-industrial complex has made a Faustian bargain. It hasn’t sold its soul for infinite knowledge, but it has become dependent on crisis to fuel innovation.

Drought is a Policy Choice

by Laura London

We must continue to deploy technology to shape nature into prosperity’s vessel. We can perpetuate the defiant quest to construct order from chaos.

One weird trick to attract startups to your city

by Connor O'Brien

What if I told you there is a low-cost, highly effective tool for seeding new clusters of high-growth startups that your city is almost certainly ignoring?

Neither EA nor e/acc is what we need to build the future

by Jason Crawford

To build the glorious abundant technological future, we’re going to need more than vibes. We’re going to need ideas.

The Offense-Defense Balance Rarely Changes

by Maxwell Tabarrok

There is little historical evidence for large changes in the offense defense balance, even in response to technological revolutions.

It's time to rethink "retirement"

by Elle Griffin

What if you could take your retirement the way you take your vacation days? With the ability to get paid for the months or years off of your choosing, rather than just the last ones?

Progress towards what?

by Brandon Griggs

Too often (in the wider community) progress seems to be equated merely with growth … This post is my rambling on how our ideas about progress need to evolve.

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by Tina Marsh Dalton

These two paintings offer a hopeful contrast. Whereas we begin with pain and suffering, we move to hope and progress. The surgeon stands apart as a hero, a symbol of the triumphant conquering of nature by humanity.

Why Governments Can't be Trusted to Protect the Long-run Future

by Maxwell Tabarrok

No one in the long-run future gets to vote in the next election. No one in government today will gain anything if they make the world better 50 years from now or lose anything if they make it worse. They have no skin in the game when it comes to the long-run future.

A paradox at the heart of American bureaucracy

by Connor O'Brien

The quickest way to doom a project to be over-budget and long-delayed is to make it an urgent public priority.

What if we split the US into city-states?

by Elle Griffin

In The Republic, when his entourage asks the ideal size of a state, Socrates replies, ‘I would allow the state to increase so far as is consistent with unity; that, I think, is the proper limit.’

Address to a Unitarian Universalist congregation on my Heritage

by Matt Ritter

Our scientific heritage isn’t a static relic of the past; it's a dynamic, evolving force, driving us towards a future brimming with promise and discovery.

Commensal Institutions

by Sable

Institutions need their problems the way that superheroes need their supervillains.

What I've been reading, November 2023

by Jason Crawford

Science since Babylon, Kurzweil on accelerating returns, the unexamined life, and stretchy Victorian fish

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by elidourado

My mind was blown several times while reading the FAA's notice of proposed rulemaking, and I wanted to share the excitement with everyone else.

How does a society hedge its bets?

by Connor O'Brien

Relying on dominant institutions to cultivate and nurture talent—like holding an investment portfolio overwhelmingly made up of Ford stock—is an implicit bet that their worldview is correct

Did Medieval Peasants Have More Vacation Time Than Us?

by Maxwell Tabarrok

If the only vision for a better world is a return to the past, then the case against industrial society is weak

Schadenfreude versus optimism in drug development

by Alex Telford

There is often a quickness to take pleasure in the downfall of people or companies associated with bold, even hubristic claims—particularly if they were relative newcomers to the industry

Should US states self-govern?

by Elle Griffin

Even though US states have the *authority* to self-govern, they don’t have the money to do so. The vast majority of our tax dollars go to the federal government, not the states

Idea Feedback Request: Pneumatic Canopies For Large-Scale Climate Regulation

by puniaviision

The core advantage of pneumatic structures is that they are lightweight, cheap, and easy to deploy per unit of space enclosed versus alternatives

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Today's backwater, tomorrow's superstar

by Connor O'Brien

The failure of the most innovative metro areas to accommodate new people and the ideas they bring is blatant economic self-sabotage… Your city may be at just such a crossroads at this moment.

Where I have landed on “ideas getting harder to find”, in a nutshell

by Jason Crawford

Ideas are getting harder to find. At the same time, we get better at finding them. Rates of growth have to be explained in terms of the balance of these factors.

A peek at Utah's universal healthcare attempt

by Elle Griffin

Common Sense Healthcare for Utah aims to put universal healthcare on the Utah ballot as soon as 2026. If passed, Utah could be the first state to offer universal healthcare to its citizens.

Big dreams and big questions in Utah

by Tina Marsh Dalton

The biggest problem with centralizing all plans to a single payor is that prices have been lost. … Prices signal how demand and supply are interacting. Prices are messages.

Health Insurance Pricing: Battling the snake-heads of Hydra

by Tina Marsh Dalton

Insurers birthed the complex pricing in modern plans to relentlessly guard their central goal: controlling costs.

Should the UK embrace its role as an exporter of talent and ideas?

by Alex Telford

Instead of trying to fight gravity, what if the UK played into its strengths and accepted its role as an exporter of talent and ideas?

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Radical Energy Abundance

By Casey Handmer

Since 1973, energy scarcity has driven a general stagnation on many key axes of progress, while our civilization found growth in the less energy-intensive industries of computation and services. In 2023, the exponentially expanding growth of solar is putting our civilization permanently back on track to increased productivity, longevity, prosperity, and happiness.

Marc Andreessen pens “Techno-Optimist Manifesto.” Discuss

Our civilization was built on technology. Our civilization is built on technology. Technology is the glory of human ambition and achievement, the spearhead of progress, and the realization of our potential.

For hundreds of years, we properly glorified this – until recently.

I am here to bring the good news. We can advance to a far superior way of living, and of being. We have the tools, the systems, the ideas. We have the will.

It is time, once again, to raise the technology flag. It is time to be Techno-Optimists.

Something Is Getting Harder To Find But It's Not Ideas

by Maxwell Tabarrok

The divergence between growing research inputs and stagnant economic growth is definitely worth pointing out and studying. Something in this production function is getting harder. Diagnosing why we aren’t getting as much growth a we think we should is important for the well-being of billions of human lives. But the evidence presented in “Are ideas getting harder to find?” is not enough to answer in the affirmative.

Working Draft of Getting the Conditions Right: Progress in Weather Forecasting

by Jeremy

Today, our weather prediction infrastructure sprawls across the land, sea, and skies of Earth, and even extends into space. It collects hordes of data each day, and our massive computing power turns that data into information about our future, increasing our resilience as a species. But it wasn't always this way.

Solved and Unsolved Externality problems?

by SebastianG

I am creating a list of famous examples of negative and positive externalities that were solved and ones that remain unsolved. Please send what you have!

So far, I have R-45, ozone depleting aerosols, lead paint, asbestos in construction. Solved negative externalities.

Solved positive externalities. Bees and farms. 8th grade education.

What else do you have?

Meta-Regulations

by Sable

I think that there ought to be laws and regulations governing how laws and regulations work - meta-regulations, if you will.…

To be clear, I don’t know if these would work, and I don’t think all of them should necessarily be applied at the same time – but I think that each of them could be a serious boon to our government in general.

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By Max Olson

Max pens an essay to all those who still hesitate in declaring LLMs, and more generally the state-of-the-art in AI, as civilization-altering technology. Max cites perspectives from finance, academia, and tech, as well as giving insight on awesome LLM applications in testing as we speak.

The Healing Code of Joan

By Juan David Campolago

This essay contains the reflections of Joan Lekuta, a biology major who watches as GPT aces her final exams with a perfect score (unlike her). Insodoing, her investment in the pre-med curriculum and hospital work experience is seen in a new light. What, she asks, will AI do to healthcare, and the workers who dedicate their lives to healing.

Announcing the Swiss Existential Risk Initiative 2023 Fellowship

by Tobias Häberli

A new fellowship, running from July 3rd to August 27th in beautiful Geneva, for all those interested in a career researching global catastrophic risk mitigation and governance. The fellowship offers skill development, networking opportunities, mentorship and a generous stipend. Apply by April 16th!

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Ross

By Mark Khurana

Mark Khurana, a medical doctor and epidemiologist at the University of Copenhagen, creator of the 'Untold Health' Substack and podcast, and author of the upcoming book The Trajectory of Discovery: What Determines the Rate and Direction of Medical Progress?, will be joining us for an AMA on Monday, March 27. Get your questions in!

Why Consumerism is Good Actually

By Jason Crawford

Jason reflects on the imprecise definition of ‘consumerism’, which has resulted in its unfairly becoming a cheap critique of modern human behavior. Most consumption satisfies basic needs and serves constructive goals, Jason argues, especially when the value of time saved is properly considered.

The Citizens Technology Brief

by Daniel Golliher

Plugging a new publication that Daniel is involved in, The Citizens Technology Brief wants short article submissions on developments in technology and New York City. The aim is for legislators and the public alike to read it. Also, a Progress Studies meet-up in NYC tomorrow @ 2pm!

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Ross

By Allison Duettmann

Allison Duettman, president and CEO of Foresight Institute and coauthor of 'Gaming the Future: Technologies for Intelligent Voluntary Cooperation' with Christine Peterson and Mark S. Millar, will be joining us for an AMA on Monday, March 20. Be sure to get your questions in, and upvote others you would like to see answered.

Against Altruism

By Arjun Khemani

Arjun deliberates on the the inherent uncertainty of predicting the future, and the difficulties this poses to altruism aimed in some part on improving the wellbeing of future generations, whose goals and preferences we cannot know. An ethic of present day progress may be critical to bridge this uncertainty.

Technological Determinism and Identity

by avaa411

avaa probes the question of whether society and its cultural characteristics are deterministically downstream of technology. While this claim has existed since the Industrial Revolution, one observes an increasing role for technology in shaping subjective experiences at the social level.

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Ross

By Jason Crawford

Jason has four new video interviews available, covering a wide variety of topics for progress studies. He discusses the role of memory for appreciating invisible, but crucial, historical progress, as well as the four-hour workweek, ChatGPT, and a new philosophy of progress.

The Cost of Books Keeps Falling

By J. Lund

J. details the egalitarian journey of books. Once extremely expensive, labor-intensive and elite-focused, books have steadily dropped in price and increased in accessibility, empowering and educating larger portions of society. Insodoing, a virtuous feedback loop between citizen ingenuity and progress is forged.

Science and Tech Policy Agenda (Tony Blair and Lord Hague Proposal)

by Tom Westgarth

Tom summarizes the policy agenda put forth by Tony Blair and Lord Hague to action the UK government’s stated desire to become a hub for science and technology. Proposals include ambitious government-led initiatives in citizen AI tools, healthcare, digital identification, and data storage and utility.

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Ross

By Kassi Dick

Kassi tackles the philosophical considerations for what is, hopefully, an age of exciting progress in space travel and exploration. Kassi mainly limits (!) her discussion to issues of our own Solar System, the technologies that can travel it, and the individuals crucial to making it happen.

Age of Invention: How the Dutch Did it Better

By Anton Howes

Anton investigates the history of Dutch financial innovation, focusing on how the Dutch had far greater wealth than their British counterparts despite comparatively weaker industrial and urban development. It is a case study in the importance of sound policies and customs to elevate material innovation.

The Progress of Brain Computer Interfaces

by Lev V.

Lev provides a fantastic guide to the state of brain-computer interfaces. Organized historically, he begins with Matt Nagle learning to play pong and open emails via sensors monitoring his brain waves. He tours the current state of the art, as well as the philosophies and motivations for current projects in this space.

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Ross

By Gale Pooley & Marian Tupy

Gale Pooley and Marian Tupuy will be joining us for an AMA session on Wednesday, March 1. They are the coauthors of “Superabundance”, a fascinating and comprehensive analysis showing how population growth drives abundance in goods, services and commodities, contrary to popular beliefs. Get your questions in!

Can Submarines Swim?

By Jason Crawford

Jason provides a detailed primer and discussion of ChatGPT and other LLM chatbots that are revolutionizing the internet. Through his deep dive into how the technology works, he sheds light on the paradoxical reality that these computers, comprised of logic, are arguably better for creative fields than those requiring reliable information.

New Database for Economics Research

by Oshan Jarow

Oshan shares an exciting new research resource, the Library of Economic Possibility, designed for sharing, discovering and organizing economic research around high-impact policies. The LEP team hope to make our abundance of economics research widely accessible, easy to organize, and ultimately more insightful.

By Ben Reinhardt

Ben Reinhardt will be joining us for an AMA on Tuesday, February 21st. Ben has recently launched Speculative Technologies, a nonprofit focused on unlocking powerful materials and manufacturing technologies that don’t have a home in other institutions. Get your questions in!

Tell Good Stories

By Rahul Rana

Rahul investigates the role of storytelling in public enthusiasm for technology and the future. Leveraging public opinion from the Great Depression - which despite awful living standards was characterized by widespread excitement about the future - Rahul suggests our current state of high welfare precludes the need for optimistic stories, which invokes pessimism.

Now is the Best Time in History to Love and be Loved

by Tony Morley

Moving into the socio-cultural and emotional realm, Tony argues that improvements in human rights, the law, and cultural values mean being in love has never been more equitable, authentic and sincere than it is today. At the core of this phenomenon are advances in women’s rights, contraception, and greater equality among different races and sexualities.

A 21st Century Progress Myth

By Ellie Hain

Ellie offers a thought-provoking critique of the progress movement, arguing technocratic visions of the future fail to inspire faith and optimism among the public. The reason for this, she argues, is the currently-unsophisticated examination of what progress is for, namely improvements in human experience and welfare.

By Matt Clancy

Matt Clancy will be joining us for an AMA beginning Monday, February 13 until Wednesday, February 15. Matt is an economist specializing in science and innovation, currently working for Open Philanthropy. He previously worked at the Institute for Progress, and authors New Things Under the Sun. Get your questions in!

A Cure for My Cancer

By Virginia Postrel

Through a heartfelt accounting of her own battle with Her2+ breast cancer, now cured, Virginia enlightens us on the life-saving effects of Herceptin. The research for this drug was financed through the personal philanthropy of Ronald Perelman, owner of Revlon. Yet the bureaucracy of financing such a breakthrough via traditional science funding would have taken years, and resulted in a “Rose Bowl full of dead women”.

The Rise of Steel - Part I

by Brian Potter

Brian begins his multi-part elaboration on the foundational importance of steel to industrial progress. Steel is a cornerstone of modern life and the material processes that support and uphold it, and its recent development from iron is crucial to understanding the capacities of modern nations and societies.

Wanted: Technical Animator for Interactive Diagrams of Invention

By Jason Crawford

A call to digital animators: Jason and historian Anton Howes seek animators to build explorable explanatory diagrams on the history of the steam engine. If you are interested, please visit the post for full details, and email explorables@rootsofprogress.org if you think you are a good fit.

By Heike Larson

A word from new CEO at The Roots of Progress, Heike Larson, expressing her gratitude for the opportunity and her visions for both the company and the progress movement! Heike draws on her childhood at the East/West German border to elaborate on her motivations and inspiration for her new role.

A Catalog of Big Visions for Biology

By Sam Rodriques

Sam, of the Francis Crick Institute, joins the forum with a wishlist for biological breakthroughs. Biologists could dream a little more, Sam argues, so that their expertise can supplement and enhance possibilities for improvements in health, understanding, and transcendence.

Age of Invention: The Bourgeois Supremacy

by Anton Howes

Anton brings us another essay from his Age of Invention series, this time investigating the rise of commerce in eighteenth century England and, more pertinently, the impact this had on politics as the balance between mercantile and aristocratic interests shifted. The infamous ‘Corn Laws’ lie at the heart of this tale.

Can We “Cure” Cancer

By Jason Crawford

Jason deliberates over biomedical progress, as well as the trappings of classification. The ‘cure for cancer’ debate is often nixed by the notion that cancer is not a single disease, thereby belying visions of a single cure. But vaccines and public health reform obliterated most infectious disease, which is a similarly non-singular biomedical category. Perhaps the approach to cancer could be different after all.

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Ross

By Eli Dourado

Eli Dourado, senior research fellow at Utah State University’s Center for Growth and Opportunity, will be doing an ‘Ask Me Anything’ session commencing Monday, January 30. He will be answering questions for a few days only, so get them in!

Revving Up the Progress Studies Idea Machine

By Pradyumna

To rev up the progress studies idea machine, Pradyumna here proposes an agenda. He discusses the virtues of specifying cause areas and documenting the varying availability to work in them, as well as institutions and organizations that make this work possible. He also evaluates how well progress studies engages with politics.

The Paradox of Processed Food

by J. Lund

J. dives into the murky world of nutrition, and investigates how miraculous advances in agricultural techniques have borne efficiencies that feed an increasing percentage of an ever-busier world. But similar techniques have birthed the rise of processed food, with its well-documented negative health effects. Or is it so simple?

Where Are All the Robots?

By Rohit Krishnan

With much-lauded recent developments in AI, Rohit dives into two arguments for why robotics has not seen a similar productivity explosion: high costs, and poor use outcomes. Battery technology, energy sources, up-front development costs, and non-standard definitions for what a robot is substantiate his discussion.

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Ross